The curious case of Jason Bay

After having off season knee surgery, Jason Bay reported to spring training in 2007 and continued to rehab his knee for about a month before seeing his first game.

During the first month of the season it became painfully obvious to the fans Bay's ability to cover the ball in his zone was limited. It became almost routine watching Bay casually jog instead of run.

After joining the Pirates in 2004, Pirate fans watched in horror as Bay lobbed rainbow throw after rainbow throw to cutoff men. So many runners advanced on Bay that year that in 2005, Lloyd McClendon had Jack Wilson run all the way out to mid-leftfield to get Bay's throws.

While that significantly reduced the number of advancing baserunners on Bay's plays, the fans started seeing another part of Bay's game come apart late that year - an inability to cover the ball in his zone.

Jim Tracy was brought in as manager in 2006 and he played Bay in left despite the fact balls were falling in all over his zone during the year. Later Bay announced he had a knee problem that would require off season surgery. But curiously, Tracy halted Wilson from running deep into left to get Bay's relay throws and the result was as you would expect - runners took extra bases on him like water running downhill.

After having surgery, Bay returned in 2007 and, despite the knee surgery, saw even more balls fall in than in 2006. Bay's rainbow relay throws resumed and, coupled with a new and improved lazy jog going after balls he couldn't cover, so many base runners advanced on balls hit to left field the Pirates runs allowed shot through the roof. It got so bad after the break, Bay rarely threw a relay ahead of a runner anymore just giving up.

At the plate over the years, Bay was able to maintain his power numbers until mid-year 2007 when he tanked. Bay's health had finally gotten the best of him, some said. But was Bay's 2007 decline only the result of poor health, or is there possibly more to the story that doesn't show up in basic stats?

Moneyball sabermetric types, along with the scientific community, will tell you there is no such thing as a streaky hitter - hitters simply go hot or cold based on random events.

One event all but certain to trigger a hot day at the plate for a good MLB hitter is when they face inferior pitching - like most NL mopup guys. On the flip side of the coin, an event that will probably bring on a cold day at the plate is facing superior pitching.

That brings us back to Bay. The graph below shows how much Bay's production has been suppressed batting against teams in the hunt ("hunt") in August and September since 2005. The stats are normalized to show you what his production would equate to over a typical 550 at bat year:

But even that doesn't tell the whole story.

You see, Bay had multiple hits in 14 of the 61 'hunt' games played in. Over those games he hit .533 (32-60) and the Pirates won 14 (14-2). In the other 47 games, Bay hit .131 (16-122), he hit just one home run, struck out more than one in three at bats, and managed one rbi just over every five games. So what was the difference?

Blowouts.

The Pirates outscored their opponents by an average of 4.4 runs per game in the sixteen Bay hit .533 in. Of all his at bats, 61% were against inferior pitching (mopup guys, AA relievers, and the like). The Pirates went 15-32 (.319) and were outscored by 1.3 runs per game on average in the other forty-seven.

So, outside of the blowouts, was Bay's cold streak the bi-product of randomness or coincidental issues?

Hardly.

He's just not a very good hitter. Probably better put, Bay's not a good hitter against good scouting teams that also feature good pitching. You see, Bay has a hole the size of the Grand Canyon in his swing in two spots (which I won't go into here for obvious reasons). The days of Bay crunching 100 rbis and runs are probably over in Pittsburgh unless we remain a non-issue, although 25 - 30 home runs is still realistic.

I bring all this up because scouts and general managers know this about Bay too and this is one reason why getting a fabulous return value for Bay in a trade is going to be difficult, not to mention his continuing health issues.

Now I don't want you to think I'm suggesting Bay is a marginal player. Hardly. His poorer defense could easily be tolerated on an American League team that puts up 5 - 6 runs per game on average, and his complimentary bat would explode if he was put into a lineup with numerous good hitters up and down the card.

But in Pittsburgh, he's toast and it's time to trade him. Unfortunately, other GM's know this too. One likely destination is the Blue Jays.. others could be the White Sox, Twins, or Mariners.

The question becomes is, when. My bet is this winter.

And if you wanted to know if Bay's decline from August on was the result of his health or not, look at it this way - against teams in the hunt in August and September, in three blowout games Bay went 7-14 (.500); in 27 non-blowout games Bay went 5-50 (.100).

Against teams not in the hunt, in 20 games in August Bay hit his atypical .264. In 9 games in September he hit just .158. So it seems his health might have gotten to him in September (if not a mental thing while thinking he was going to be traded). The rest of the year Bay was just handled.