Evaluating the Evaluators: Mike Rizzo

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported Saturday that Washington Nationals Assistant General Manager and Vice President of Baseball Operations, Mike Rizzo, has an interest in the Pirates GM position.

Rizzo is very well respected. He had been with the White Sox starting in the 80's, became their area scout (midwest) in the early 90's through 1998, then went on to become the Arizona Diamondbacks Scouting Director from 1999 - 2006 until leaving for the Nats.

His early drafts were considered lucky - in 2000 an eighth rounder by the name of Brandon Webb stepped up and in 2001 Chad Tracy took off from his seventh round slot.

But as Rizzo's scouting team, which included a lot of former White Sox scouts, started getting some legs, and D'back ownership agreed to spend insane amounts of money despite the fact their organization fell into a vast red ink hole, Rizzo was able to put together some good drafts between 2003 and 2005 as you can see from these highlights:

2003: Connor Jackson (first round), Carlos Quentin (first round - albeit needing TJ surgery), and Matt Chico (third round); he had two first round picks, and one pick in each of the second and third rounds.

2004: Stephen Drew (first rounder nobody else would sign); three picks total in the first three rounds.

2005: Juston Upton (number one pick overall) and Matt Torra (supplemental first round); Rizzo had five of the draft's first 83 picks including two in the first round, one second rounder, and two in the third round.

Those twelve picks, which included the selection of the draft's best position players in back-to-back years, plus the addition of Javier Vazquez and Brad Halsey to their system from the Randy Johnson trade in January 2005, catapulted Rizzo's 13th rated farm system to the #1 rated system in baseball in 2006.

And everyone credited Rizzo for a job well done.

For reference, here is Bucco Blog's comparison chart looking at some of the potential GM candidates career win shares obtained between 2000 - 2003:

Rizzo blows everyone out of the water, thanks to 2000 draft pick Brandon Webb's 89 CWS and 2001 seventh rounder Chad Tracy's 52 CWS. To be sure, Rizzo's team had to identify the players to draft them so they absolutely deserve the recognition for taking Webb and Tracy.

But still, all things considered, Rizzo and Company were pretty lucky.

To show you better what we mean, Bucco Blog looked at career win share productivity obtained from the Pirates and Brewers drafts from 2002 and 2003, so now let's plug in Rizzo's two drafts to see how he compares:

		CWS		#Players		Ave Pos
Zduriencik		96		6		8
Creech		107		10		9
Rizzo		75		6		---

Rizzo had an advantage the other two men didn't - he had two first round draft picks in one of the better drafts in years - 2003 (19th and 29th overall picks), while having the 27th round pick in 2002. Thus the " --- " in his average draft position because what's two first rounders in a strong draft worth? A lot.. you're right.

Yet despite that advantage, Rizzo's 2002 - 2003 picks have managed 75 career win shares to date.

When you compare Rizzo to Tony LaCava's three board years, there's no question LaCava stands a bit taller because he didn't have the vets to trade, ownership's open wallet, or extra picks in his pockets. LaCava had to do it the old fashion way - hard work.

In summation, a lot of Mike Rizzo's fame and fortune came about as the result of a little luck in Brandon Webb and Chris Snyder (which never hurts), ownership's willingness to overspend slot, eight first round, five second round, and six third round picks over five years, and the ability to add to his stable when his club traded veterans like Randy Johnson.

As a result, he took the D'backs farm rating from #29 to #1. But with that type of support you have to wonder, who couldn't?

I don't want to give the impression I think Rizzo is horribly overrated, because he isn't. He had a very good team in Arizona and accomplished good things. And, considering his non-compete with the D'backs is probably close to running out, I assume he could pull a lot of the staff from Arizona to the Pirates if he was hired, like Bill Singer.

But are Frank Coonelly and Mike Rizzo oil and water? Does Rizzo's high maintenance profile fit Robert Nutting's philosophy? And how important is it that Robert Nutting and Frank Coonelly kiss up to the Commissioner's Office by taking Joe Garagiola Jr's buddy Rizz?

Bucco Blog believes Rizzo will probably stay where he is because Stan Kastan is a better fit for him, low budget and all. Besides, Coonelly has already asked to speak to the best candidate there is - Tony LaCava.

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Houston Astros announcer Bill Brown mentioned during Saturday night's FSN broadcast that Ruben Amaro Jr. has interviewed for the Pirates GM position. We think that was in error, at least from what our sources are telling us.