1st, 6th, and 7th inning killers
The Pittsburgh Pirates scored an average of 4.47 runs per game in 2007.. the average MLB team scored 4.83. That difference amounts to 58 runs over 162 games.
The Pirates allowed an average of 5.26 runs per game.. the average MLB team 4.83. That difference amounts to 70 runs over 162 games.
The total difference (58 runs + 70 runs) is 128 runs. Since the Pirates finished the year with a 68-94 record, and considering the general norm that 10 runs equals one win, a 128 run swing would have meant 13 more wins for the Pirates. And sure enough, 68 actual wins plus 13 swing wins would have made them an 81 win team. Or, you could say, an average team.
If you watched many games the last couple of years then you probably noticed our starting pitchers getting spanked in the first inning.
As the chart below will show you, the Pirates allowed an average of 7.3 runs per 9 innings (average of 0.81 runs per inning for a 7.30 ERA) in the first. But the Pirates offense machine only averaged scoring the equivalent of 5.6 runs per 9 in the first.
As you would expect, at the end of the first inning the Pirates were often behind. The chart below shows us that, after the first, we were ahead in 3 more games than the average MLB team, tied in 21 fewer, and behind in 18 fewer. So that means, one in four games the Pirates offense had to dig out of a hole deeper than the average MLB team.
Talk about tough luck.
Interestingly, the Pirates offense did just that - they dug out. In the 2cd and 3rd innings Pirate pitchers allowed fewer runs than the average MLB team and the Pirates offense responded by scoring MLB average runs.
But then the roof collapsed.
Between the 5th and 7th inning, the Pirates were outscored by an average of 5.4 runs per 9 (0.6 per inning) every single game and they simply gave up and packed it in. When games were close enough to warrant a challenge, the 7th and 8th inning is when the Pirates typically rallied.
As you can see in the "diff RA" (difference runs allowed per 9 innings) column, the 1st, 6th, and 7th innings are what determined the Pirates fate in 2007. Interestingly, the 6th and 7th inning pitching meltdown was a full inning later than the average MLB team and that hurt as well because the Pirates offense had to achieve a comeback with one inning less to work with on average.
That's not easy to do.
Now when you start to consider what changes to the Pirates roster might be needed, there are two basic stats you might keep in mind: first inning ERA for starters (MLB average in 2007 was 5.40 ERA) and first time through the lineup ERA (MLB average in 2007 was 3.44) when looking at relievers.
Here are those stats for the Pirates in 2007:
| First inning ERA - Starters | |||
| Starter | ERA | GS | IP |
| S Youman | 3.38 | 8 | 8 |
| T Gorzelanny | 4.50 | 32 | 32 |
| I Snell | 5.91 | 32 | 32 |
| B Bullington | 6.00 | 3 | 3 |
| M Morris | 6.55 | 11 | 11 |
| S Chacon | 6.75 | 4 | 4 |
| T Armas | 7.20 | 15 | 15 |
| P Maholm | 9.00 | 29 | 29 |
| Z Duke | 9.47 | 19 | 19 |
| J Van Benschoten | 11.00 | 9 | 9 |
| First time through lineup ERA | |||
| Player | ERA | G | IP |
| Juan Perez | 2.25 | 17 | 12 |
| Matt Capps | 2.28 | 76 | 79 |
| Damaso Marte | 2.38 | 65 | 45.1 |
| Shawn Chacon | 3.60 | 64 | 75 |
| Romulo Sanchez | 3.63 | 16 | 17.1 |
| Tony Armas | 3.79 | 31 | 54.2 |
| John Wasdin | 4.15 | 12 | 17.1 |
| John Grabow | 4.53 | 63 | 51.2 |
| Salomon Torres | 5.47 | 56 | 52.2 |
| Marty McLeary | 7.20 | 4 | 5 |
| Jonah Bayliss | 7.82 | 39 | 35.2 |
| Masumi Kuwata | 9.61 | 19 | 19.2 |
| Josh Sharpless | 12.46 | 6 | 4.1 |
| Brian Rogers | 13.50 | 3 | 2 |
| Dave Davidson | 22.50 | 2 | 2 |
Have a better idea of which pitchers failed and when now?
Why not hire Joe Girardi as manager??? Oh yea and def trade Bay. Do you see Pearce starting next year?
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Interesting.
First time through is a little skewed with relievers. But, the good ones seem to indicate they get the job done. Wasdin and Armas were surprises. Torres was always in trouble and those below him were even worse, although most had small samples.
Surprised Maholm and Snell were such slow starters.
How 'bout starting Youmans 162 times IN '08? (TIC)
bob
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"Do you see Pearce starting next year?"
If Pearce is starting then LaRoche or Nady aren't. Can Huntington even trade Nady? Hmm..
"How 'bout starting Youman 162 times IN '08?"
Hilarious.. pull a Lou Piniella and start him every game for the first inning, huh? Not sure it would work, but..
Youman had a good campaign in 2006 because of no film on him. In 2007 his strand rate tanked to just 60% and his ERA took a beating because of it (indicating bad luck).
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