What came first - the chicken or the egg?

"[Pittsburgh Pirates] general manager Dave Littlefield had a company produce a statistical analysis and run a computer simulation about "30,000" times to determine the most productive lineup [for the 2005 season]. When the numbers were crunched, the analysis recommended a batting order with Matt Lawton leading off, following by Jack Wilson and [then Tike] Redman.."

Remember that fiasco? Redman lasted all of 14 at bats with just two singles before Lloyd McClendon pulled the plug on Littlefield's computer experiment.

But the most intriguing part of Littlefield's quest was the fact he didn't use his scouting and player evaluation tools to make his decision - he used computer generated statistical analysis.

Enter stage right new Pittsburgh Pirates president Frank Coonelly who had two strategic comments buried within his interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Thursday. One, Coonelly seemed to like the Cleveland Indians model of building from within, and, two, he's in love with statistical analysis, although he was quick to point out evaluation was also a part of the process.

When someone mentions Indians and computers in the same breath only one name pops out after 30,000 simulations - Indians assistant general manager Chris Antonetti who was rumored to be a GM candidate for Coonelly until he withdrew his name today.

Over the winter of 2002, Antonetti brought on line an organizational wide collaboration and evaluation software package that the Indians called DiamondView. Most of the teams had already gone to like software packages so that in itself was nothing new. However, what DiamondView could do compared to the other packages would later be called revolutionary.

Antonetti, despite never playing professional baseball or working in the trenches, was promoted that winter from baseball operations assistant to assistant general manager. After the start of the 2002 season, the Indians farm system was ranked 20th by Baseball America and owner Jim Dolan proclaimed the club was losing money and commenced dumping contracts.

The first trade that would put DiamondView to the test came in June when Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew were sent to the Montreal Expos for Lee Stevens, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore.

Coupled with the Indians 2002 draft picks of Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Slocum, the addition of Coco Crisp from the Cardinals for Chuck Finley, and receiving Ben Broussard from the Reds for Russell Branyan, the Indians farm system catapulted to baseball's highest ranked system in 2003.

But while fans heralded Chis Antonetti and DiamondView for making great decisions, Indians GM Mark Shapiro quietly patted the back of the national scout he brought in to orchestrate the sell off and rebuilding of the organization - Tony LaCava.

For reference, here is a six year look at the Indians, Brewers, and Pirates farm system rankings by Baseball America:

	'07	'06	'05	'04	'03	'02
Indians	10	9	7	6	1	20
Brewers	7	5	3	1	16	26
Pirates	19	19	19	11	18	22

Indians owner Larry Dolan knew he had to increase funding in support services the year before he planned to raze his high priced roster for youth, so he consistently pumped 25% more money than the average organization into player development and the result was what you would expect - they have been exceedingly successful.

Now the question that begs to be answered is - have the Indians been successful because of a computer whiz named Chris Antonetti and a software program called DiamondView, or was their success the bi-product of toolsy Tony LaCava's intital deals?

No-brainer - LaCava. Just ask Shapiro.

As we saw from the David Littlefield batting Tike Redman third exercise, the game still has to be managed with toolsy evaluators and gut instincts because computer results are only as good as the data that is fed into them.

Whiz kids like Antonetti have their place in the game but they are still complimentary pieces to the toolsy leaders, for the most part.

As for the Indians continual cycle of remaining in the top ten of Baseball America's best farm systems? You can chock that up to draft position and not Antonetti.

Between 2003 and 2006 the Indians had 49 draft picks in the first ten rounds and 40% of those were selected in the first three rounds, many compensating losses. In fact, the Indians have had seven first round picks, seven second round picks, and five third round picks in the four drafts for 19 of 48.

It's no wonder the Indians have so much talent flowing from their system making guys like Antonetti seem like the next Billy Beane.

But even having MLB's highest number of first three round picks the last four years, having employed Ivy League whiz kids to punch keyboards all day long into a copyrighted in-house software program, and having one of the sharpest GM's in the game, the Indians farm system has still slipped down the rung 33% over five years and is still sliding.

Maybe all the Indians need to do is hire a toolsy evaluator? Frank Coonelly certainly should.