Are Pirates on the verge of something?

Not twenty-four hours after Frank Coonelly took the helm of the Pirates ship, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette columnist Bob Smizik offered his views of Coonelly:

-- he's naive;

-- he's walking into a job he doesn't seem to fully understand;

-- his citing "instilling the proper principles of winning" and then talking about bringing in a nutritionist and a chiropractor won't cut it;

-- he's acting as though McClatchy didn't have a clue as to what he was doing, much like Tracy did when replacing McClendon; and

-- he's been away from the competitive fires too long.

That's a remarkable opinion considering Smizik probably had no more than an hour or two with a man he had never met before.

Perhaps Smizik is a psychic? That seems to fit his article where his last thirteen words said:

"You read it here first: The 2008 Pirates will have a winning record."

Talk about issuing a brow beating and then covering butt. You go Bob.

But maybe Smizik is on to something without really knowing he is? Consider this - the 2007 Pirates have scored an average of 5.15 runs per game in the second half and, so far, this is only the sixth time that has happened since 1956 (when my splits table begins). In fact, it would only be the second time since 1956 more than 5.1 runs per game has been averaged in the second half if it continues.

Now let's look at the years it did happen and the next season's wins obtained:

So the year after, the Pirates went on to play .500 baseball 60% of the time, not to mention they also won two division championships and the World Series.

Now that's encouraging.

However, it's not often a near rock bottom spending organization replaces their CEO, GM, scouting and development teams, manager, and who knows who else in the winter, and continues on to win a division title the next year. I don't have access to Ellis stats to run that down but I would bet the probability of that happening is less than 5%.

Perhaps 1-800-CALL-BOB has the answer for us?