Scouting the Reds: Game 1

The Pirates head to Cincinnati as underdogs once again but interestingly, the late money trend is swinging back towards the Pirates.

Perhaps because the game time temperature will be in the 30's with a chance of snow?

Two soft tossers face off against each other.

Paul Maholm takes the mound for the Pirates and I couldn't find a game where he had pitched below 50 degrees. In fact, I couldn't find one below 58 degrees last year. But being from Evergreen Park near Chicago, I doubt Maholm will be bothered by the cold much.

For the most part, Reds batters have yet to figure Maholm out as his .225 batting average allowed shows. But they have walked a lot - about 5 walks per nine innings on average, despite just four issued in his last 18 innings against them.

The Reds will have Matt Belisle throwing and the Pirates have eaten his off speed arsenal for dinner. Over 146 at bats, Pirate batters have stroked a 1.007 OPS with only nine walks, including one home run every 14.5 at bats as a team, and one every six at bats for Bay. Expect us to be up there hacking early while it's still relatively warm.

The early strength of the Reds has been their bullpen, much like the Pirates. In 6.2 innings of work they have yet to give up a run, but they have walked five.

Adam Dunn and Scott Hatteberg are the hot bats, but Dunn has a career 2-20 line against Maholm so something has to give. Pirate eater David Ross, is off to his typical early year slow start going 0-7 at the plate. And Ken Griffey, Jr., who is always a threat, is just 1 for his last 7.

In Vegas, the Reds are the consensus pick at 63% to win game one of the series primarily because the Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games at Great American Park, 1-5 in their last six Friday games, and 3-8 in Maholm's last 11 road starts with the current 9.5 run over/under odds line.

On the other hand, the Reds are 5-0 in their last five Friday games, 7-1 in games with the 9.5 run odds line, and 4-0 last four in game one of a series.

But don't underestimate the Pirates for these reasons:

-- the Buccos are 4-0 when Maholm started as the underdog;

-- the Reds are 2-11 in their last 13 after scoring 5 or more the previous game;

-- the Pirates are 7-1 following a win; and

-- 17-8 last twenty-five when the odds line was set at 9.5 runs.

There should be a lot of offense to start the series off and a lot of flu setting in by the end of the series. Maybe that's why Duke got pushed back to a daytime Sunday start since Saturday night is sure to be even colder?

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I had planned to show you some video of Freddy Sanchez in the Indy Indians game but, for some reason, the game has been yanked off the MiLB shelf.

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