Bucco Blog's 2007 Pirates Sleepers and Foolers

Last year I choked on my Sleepers and Foolers thinking Zach Duke wouldn't turn around a sophomore slump, which he did in quick fashion, Ian Snell's straight heater would get mauled, but it didn't thanks to an improved slider and change up, and Humberto Cota would have a monster year for him with repetitive at bats, which he really never got [link].

My Sleepers and Foolers for 2007 are:

Sleepers:

1. Jonah Bayliss. Batters can't get a handle on his 3/4 arm slot and the Pirates moved him into a closer role in AAA last year and he excelled. Bayliss features a very heavy fastball that runs in 92 - 94 mph, a plus slider that is getting even tighter and makes batters swing, and a Salomon Torres work horse arm. That gives you the Pirates next closer IF he can throw more first pitch strikes.

2. Shawn Chacon. This is a risky pick, especially since he has poor career numbers in the pen and he'll probably be trade fodder in July, but Chacon is in a contract year and nobody likes money more than Shawn Chacon. He's found his mid-90's fastball again as well as the plate, so I suspect he'll be the guy Jim Tracy goes to after Armas proves he wasn't worth the look.

3. Paul Maholm. I think I'm one of the few Pirate fans who thinks Maholm has a higher ceiling than Zach Duke. Matt Cain and Maholm put up very high Game Score numbers in limited innings in 2005 and Cain moved forward last year. 2007 will be Maholm's turn as his K/9 rate will continue to climb, his ground ball rate will hover around 2, and the fact Tracy forced him to match up against opposing team's aces last year will start to pay dividends.

4. Andrew McCutchen. Once Dave Littlefield has had enough of Chris Duffy, look for McCutchen to be brought up and deliver another National League Rookie of the Year award to Pittsburgh.

5. Neil Walker. He won't be added to the roster until late in the year, but he'll put up monster numbers over the last two months while still learning how to glove at 3B.

Foolers:

1. Ronny Paulino. As an ex-catcher, I'm well aware of a receiver's potential to tank in their second year. His spring training offensive numbers will probably translate early in the year, but between mounting frustrations defensively behind the plate and a swing that develops a hole from better league scouting, Paulino is a good candidate to tank.

2. Sean Burnett. He didn't like his demotion last year and he openly displayed his frustration being sent to Triple-A this year, but his biggest failure won't come until he is brought up to Pittsburgh mid-year and he gets hammered so hard he ends up back in the farm. Look for him in 2008.

3. Jack Wilson. Oh, he has the sweetest swing I have ever seen from him this spring, but he's still lazy as a defender, especially throwing the ball, and will be an easy out at the plate.

4. Dave Littlefield. If the team is close in the evenly spread division, don't look for any help from Mr. Littlefield in July because he doesn't believe yet.

5. Adam LaRoche. Another risky pick because he could either put up monster numbers or tank like a lead ball in water. I don't believe he will be in the middle. Batting cleanup will take a toll on LaRoche as every pitcher in the league will figure his hole early. But can he earn a gold glove?

6. Tony Armas. I give him a month before he hits the Pirates disabled list. If he does manage to stay healthy, if Jim Tracy exposes him to the wrong starts, his ERA could jump over 10.