NLCD Offensive Matchup Before McThump

Pirate fans have heard over and over how bad the team needs and wants a Lefty McThump bat. What few fans fail to realize is that most line-to-line lefty bats hit their home runs from left to center field where PNC Park is deepest.

That doesn't mean a left hand power batter won't be able to take advantage of PNC's shorter porch, of course. It's just that it won't be quite as easy as most fans think unless opposing pitchers are just plain stupid and throw heaters into his bread basket. Don't count on that.

With the unrealistic player values in the current market, David Littlefield has quite a chore in front of him trying to find Mr. McThump and then trying to get the other team to trade under realistic values. Don't count on that either because when a team has one need that everyone knows they desire, prices go up because the other GM's know you will have to over pay.

But does Littlefield even need to acquire a Mr. McThump?

I don't think so, and I don't think David Littlefield believes he does either, although the fan pressure may force him to do something to say he did it. I'm not so sure that is a good idea unless it's the right piece, and here's why. . .

Let's take a look at the Pirates proposed starting lineup as of today and their career batting averages against the current projected NLCD starting rotations:

Let me show you how to read the chart first. Let's look at the Reds. The Pirates lineup, defined in the key area, has a career .320 batting average over 362 at bats vs the listed Reds starters of Harang, Arroyo, Milton, Lohse, and Ramirez. Then each pitcher is listed with the Pirates career batting average against that pitcher with the number of at bats, just below the pitcher's name. Also see the notes below.

Ok.. so the bottom line is, the above proposed Pirates lineup has a career .278 batting average against the listed 25 opposing pitchers. Now this isn't perfect by any means.. some pitchers will do better, some batters will do better, and so on. Stat heads will quickly point out that batting average is the one stat that fluctuates the most year to year.

But since the number of at bats we are talking about is decent at 1438, we can be pretty sure we aren't too far off. And if anything, our young batters might have the advantage as they mature and gain better pitch recognition.

These are the same type of figures David Littlefield is looking at. What is important to note is, while a .278 batting average doesn't sound great by any means, especially with very little power in the lineup, Dave Littlefield would die to have a team batting average above .270 - he's never achieved that as a GM. In fact, either did Leyland in Pittsburgh. Our .263 BA last year was the highest since 2003 and then you go all the way back to 2000 when Gene Lamont's team had a .267, but zero pitching to go with the bats.

And that's the difference this year.

What turned the Pirates around in the second half last year was Jim Tracy halting the Gerald Perry swing for the fence mentality. All Tracy wanted to see was the ball put in play. He didn't care if it went for an out, if it dribbled in front of the mound, or if it went yard. Just put it in play, and put it in play to the appropriate place.

What happened was that our second half SLG dropped to .372 from the first half's .416, even our OBP and BA dropped in the second half, but we won more games just putting the ball in play. Why? One reason is because PNC Park is not built for power bats.. even Lefty McThumps. It is built to put the ball in play. And that's what Tracy demanded. Another reason is because it is easier to be a clutch hitter when the ball is in play vs striking out or walking.

Now, when you consider some of the obscene career batting averages we have against the majority of starters that will make up the NLCD's rotations next year, what David Littlefield needs most is a contact hitter, NOT a lefty McThump. We don't need a guy who walks a lot.. we need a guy who puts the ball in play and doesn't K. That's why Littlefield likes LaRoche. Not that he'll hit 20 home runs or more.. but because his defense is good and he puts the ball in play.

Now add in the strength of the Pirates - our pitching core - and you start to see where we are headed.. in the right direction.

2007 may not be the magical year but the way the other teams rotations are shaping up, there isn't much out there to stop our ability to put the ball in play this year. And that means wins folks.

It will take Jose Castillo forgetting a fence exists, or Tracy platooning him more often than not, it will take Jody Gerut being healthy and manning right field with Xavier Nady in a platoon, and it will take Chris Duffy just putting the bat on the ball the opposite way.

And our rotation to pitch as well as they can.

We are a lot closer than most believe. I have had front office people, one ex-manager, and a few scouts all tell me there is no way the Pirates will be in the hunt next year. But nearly everyone of them agreed a few breaks here and there going our way, a little bit of confidence early on, and a whole lot of lady luck, and the Pirates just might be the force to worry about next year.

It's something to think about.

Notes on chart:

-- There is an oddball stat for two pitchers - Kip Wells and Ted Lilly where there wasn't enough history to use. So for Wells I used Russ Ortiz who is a similar style thrower, and for Lilly I used our stats vs Tom Glavine. Those are in blue and the blue areas are not counted in the overall batting average against (BAA) that team. Instead, they are listed below the team average in blue and those figures include the other pitchers on the team.

-- The NLCD batting average does not include the blue projections and Albers, Marshall, and Miller were not included in their teams BAA.

-- Some pitchers are expected to throw reduced innings. They are:

-- 80 inning range: Thompson (maybe Wells)
-- 100 innings: Reyes, Wainwright, and Wells
-- 125 innings: Prior (probably more like 90) and Hill
-- 150 innings: Rodriguez, Sheets, and Williams

-- at bats against Harang were inadvertantly left out - they are 162

-- for those that want to know more, Marshall Cubs .342 BA and 35 AB, Guzman Cubs .467/30, and Miller Cubs .244/45.

--- Tidbits --

I see the Post-Gazette has finally picked up on Littlefield's desire for Jeff Suppan. Bucco Blog told you December 11th he was Littlefield's #1 target. I was of the opinion then - and I still am - that Suppan would be a great addition, but I wouldn't sign him.

The reason for that is because Littlefield is going to turn around and deal a starter.. probably Maholm to the Braves for LaRoche, with Castillo and McLouth, like we have been telling you since the winter meetings the Braves want us to do. Hopefully he will trade Maholm in a package to the Angels for Kotchman and his gold glove D and line-to-line bat instead.

I'd rather keep Maholm myself (instead of the LaRoche deal but I would take Kotchman) and put the money into the bank to take the best draft choice next year, or sign a better player for a few years off free agency in 2008, or the like.

Ok.. ok.. I hear you.. I agree, if Littlefield pulls off getting Soup, does the LaRoche/Kotchman deal for Maholm et al, and keeps Gonzo on board, the entire Pirate nation will go ballistic in hope.

We'll see if he gets it done.