Red Ink Flows in Pittsburgh

First, the news --

Carlos Lee gets $100m/6 with the Astros???

Huh?

My first reaction was like everyone else - that's nuts. But then I dug a bit deeper, and deeper, and talked to a few folks around the game and I came up with a different conclusion.

It's another Soriano deal.. good value in the early years and a complete waste of money in the later years.

Like some, I see Lee as a 35 - 40 HR guy with the Astros, especially playing at Minute Maid. Anybody want to guess how many games that the roof stays open in Houston next year? And a 315 LF foul pole - I mean, pleeeasee. And sure enough, he has 50+ AB's there and has hit one HR every 14.5 AB's - the best in any park except Wrigley - yet another NLCD park he'll visit. Gee, give him 300 AB's at Minute Maid and he projects to hit, what, 21 there? Probably more. Gawdd...

Soriano to the Cubs with Lugo leaning that way, Lee and Woody Williams to the Astros, and now the Brewers are after Dave Roberts. All we need to hear now would be Dunn traded for Santana.

What does all this mean for Pirate fans? Here are a few comments I have solicited from those around the game:

"Pittsburgh has some major problems developing." -- NL Scout

"It's hard to envision a scenario where the Pirates contend in the near future." -- Jim Callis at BA

"The Royals have finally ended their run as the worst organization in baseball, thanks to the Pirates." -- ex MLB team front office guru

Are the Pirates really that bad right now?

Well consider this, the Pirates play just under half their games against NLCD teams who are now a lot stronger than they were last year, albeit the Pirates youth has grown a tad stronger as well.

Then we play about 30 games against NLWD teams who we have had a combined winning record against one year since Littlefield became GM -- the 2003 Reggie Sanders/Kenny Lofton days, and that year we barely made it.

Then we play about 15 games in interleague play. Last year we won exactly 3, including the Royals sweeping us.

Ah shucks, we also had the worst defense in baseball last year and will be fielding nearly the same roster as last year, albeit Burnitz and Casey will be gone but their replacements were not much better.

Throw in Gorzelanny, Gonzalez, and Snell's barking elbows, Maholm's talking shoulder, Gerut's knee, Nady hitting .275/.321/.314 at PNC Park last year (not to mention .214/.313/.214 in RISP opportunities and about the same line for his last 18 games overall), and then toss a little who knows if Duffy will even show up, and you have quite the team developing in 2007.

And no place to get other players because the farm is dry and free agents don't want to play here unless they are one year from retirement.

Now, you make the call.

Let's just say it doesn't look good in Pittsburgh, to say the least.

But the Pirate ownership group has to be scrambling too. They see the potential for a nightmare looming. Oh, there will always be bridge walkers in Pittsburgh who show up whether the team is losing 160 or not, but even those fans are tired of losing. Just how many times can the Pirates PR group push the "look how good we did in the second half" line on the fans now that every other team in the division is spending more on one player than we are on an entire year's payroll?

We aren't the talent rich Marlins or Rays, of course.

0-3's.. now is the time.

McClatchy surely will abandon his plans to remain with the organization. Even he won't be able to handle the fan disgust that will flow in 2007. That leaves the Nuttings who are not about to hang out without a figurehead.

All of this crazy spending can possibly mean is that the Pirates ownership group will wake up and move aside. They have taken all they are going to get out of the game for their pleasure and 2007's red ink won't be worth the pain.

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UPDATE on Chavez and Starling. It has been determined that both of these players were signed before the 2003 draft so, in fact, they were both left unprotected by Littlefield for the Rule 5 draft. I haven't researched how many teams set their 40-man at 40 players but I would bet it's quite a few.

But you know what? The Pirates have significantly more problems than worrying about Chavez or Starling.