Drew in Pittsburgh? Nawww..

Isn't it ironic that JD Drew bailed on the Dodgers eight years after he bailed on the Phillies? The funny thing about it all is, each time he bailed $11m was involved.

The Phillies were willing to give him a $2m package to sign in 1997 (the largest deal ever at that time) but by 1998, Boras had them running in circles wanting an $11m deal. The Phillies stood firm and so did Drew. Redrafted in 1998, he signed for less money at $6.9m guaranteed over four years with the Cardinals. Now he walks away from a guaranteed $11m per three deal. Go figure.

Overall, Drew played five years for the Cardinals and averaged about 53 rbis and 18 HR in 373 AB's per year, not to mention a 21.6% K-rate.

Pretty sad, huh?

Never trust a player who is thrown out stealing more times than the number of bases he does steal last year, the old saying goes.

Not only has Drew's offensive production dropped each of the last two years, he still managed averaging only one more AB per year the last two in LA compared to his five-year stint with the Cardinals.

Then throw in the fact Drew has averaged just three assists the last two years, which is less than half his average over the four preceding years, and his new found desire to play CF to 'save his knees', and you really have a mixed bag of worms.

Make no mistake about it - Drew is a very good defensive outfielder. Further, he projects to do very well offensively in big parks he can leverage his swing in.

How many AB's you'll ever get out of him is a completely different story.

MLB Trade Rumors emailed me yesterday asking about the possibility of the Pirates picking up Drew and I told them there was zero chance. Don't get me wrong, *nothing* would please Tracy more than to throw a bone back at the Big Blue Machine any way he could. I can just see Jimmy running around with a sign saying "Do I think I pulled one over on the Dodgers? Yes I do".

But let's be serious a minute.

The Pirates were -11 runs defensively in right field last year. Drew has averaged about +2 or better there and would probably be +8 or more considering the number of kills he could have with all the rats running around the bases Pirate pitchers allow. For now, we'll say that is a 16 run swing, or +2 wins in value.

Offensively, Drew's RC27 has always been very good, but playing in St. Louis, Atlanta, and LA seems to do that for a player. One problem is that you can only count on him to play 63% of the year. That would probably be good for about 75 rbis per year - about what the Pirates averaged in 2006 anyway playing everyone but the ball boys in right field.

Where Drew is exciting offensively is when men are on base because he rakes at a 18.3% Cumulative Rbi% rate (see two posts below). That is 5% higher than we had in RF in Pittsburgh last year and would probably be good for +2 wins. If Drew was hitting 5th in Pittsburgh and Freddy Sanchez 3rd, Bay would be walked less leading to increased production as well, so let's add another +1 win.

So Drew would be roughly a +5 win player for the Pirates (ok - ok, I'm REALLY trying to stretch it here but follow along). At $2m per win, Drew would be worth $10m in Pittsburgh plus associated revenue streams like fan hope ticket sales. Drew wants $15m so the Pirates would be at least $5m in the hole in marginal revenue.

Considering the Pirates majority owner is a frugal banker who cares more about profits than winning, Pirate fans can forget about signing him. But that's a good thing for our young players anyway because Drew is known to carry the "C" word on his back in the clubhouse.

Besides, as easy as it is to stay on the DL in Pittsburgh, Drew would be sitting down in Bradenton partying with Johnny V all year anyway. Who are we fooling?