Pittsburgh Pirates fans continue to scratch their heads wondering exactly who the heck these guys are coaching and running the show for the new Pittsburgh Pirates.

Day-after-day I receive emails asking the same question:

"Do you honestly think this group will make a difference Jake?"

Let’s be serious, if Ryan Doumit doesn’t feel like running hard to first, will any of these guys make him change his mind? If twenty of the players decide to head to Ybor City and club at Prana’s during spring break mid-March, will they not go knowing they aren’t supposed to? Will we start seeing bed checks at 11 PM, 2 AM, and 5 AM during away games?

Pretty doubtful.

The entire supporting cast is brand new with only Varsho having ever performed his role at the major league level. So not only are coaches having to learn, but their management team has never been in their roles either so there’s not much help there.

Basically, the entire Pittsburgh Pirates organization is being held together by a man who could have qualified as a Geritol spokesperson twenty years ago – the great Chuck Tanner, who is nearing 80 years young.

I suppose when you look at it like that, if Tanner walked up to Doumit and said "son, if you don’t hustle down that line every at bat for the rest of the year, I’ll make sure you’ll never play another game of professional baseball" could be quite intimidating.

But it won’t come down to that. It won’t have to. Russell and his staff are going to work on team-building within their own ranks first. They have to. The roster as we know it today will eventually be blown up with few survivors and that’s when they will need to start making a difference.

Perhaps as early as 2010.

In the meantime, get to know them. Write them letters in support:

Name of coach
Pittsburgh Pirates
115 Federal Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15212

talk to them in spring training, and go to the games and watch them in action. More importantly, don’t expect them to be perfect because they won’t be. They will need time to gel as a group too.

–

Bay to the White Sox? Indians? Twins? Mariners? Giants? Heck, now it’s the Yankees. By the time Bay is dealt, if he’s dealt this winter, he’ll probably have been linked to 15 or more teams in baseball.

That type of deal probably isn’t going to be leaked. So the club you haven’t heard Bay linked to is probably where he will end up.

The funniest print story on Bay so far? This one from the Chicago Tribune:

"The Sox have plenty of relievers who could help rebuild the Pirates’ bullpen."

Now reporters are turning to slapstick humor. Hit this Pirate fan with another, Mr. Gonzales. Geezz.. just what we need, a reliever or two for Bay.

–

Yes, Nate McLouth and Chris Duffy were both mentioned as available in Jerry Cransick’s ESPN article today. But to be quite blunt, Cransick is becoming more of a tabloid rumor mill guy who occasionally gets one right based on the sheer numbers of junk he prints.

Who knows if Pittsburgh Pirates GM Neal Huntington has offered them up. And more importantly, who would even want Duffy coming off surgery and not having played a solid year of pro ball since 2003? He’s a great cover guy, but come on. And McLouth in centerfield is a disaster and the only corner he could play is left but he doesn’t have the bat for it.

–

Yes, John Grabow was mentioned as available by the SportingNews today, who also mentioned Wilson and Marte.

–

Jonathan Mayo released Minor League Baseball’s top 50 prospect list and Andrew McCutchen was ranked 8th. Mayo did it right this year – he polled 20 amateur scouts and compiled their top 30 list into his top 50 list. Good work Jonathan.

Cutch – what’s with the dregs, man? Is that chicken wire for your dancin’?

Poor guy.. can’t get anyone to take a good picture of him.

It’s sickening to see where Rick Porcello is at 14th – three behind David Price and seven higher than Matt Weiters that the fans complained so much about. You may recall, Porcello was one of our choices last year. We missed a quality arm.

–

You have to wonder, if the Pittsburgh Pirates had raised their ticket prices this year, could they have possibly lost another 7,000 season ticket holders like in 2002? Maybe I should wonder instead if the Pirates even have 7,000 season ticket holders anymore?

Jeety’s Joint actually ponders why the Pirates didn’t raise their prices:

"But as a fan, I’m left a little puzzled. We have new front office leadership, and I’m struggling to see what is being done to improve the team. Aren’t we poor? It feels like they’re avoiding price increases to delay our disgust with them until AFTER the first season. Admirable, I guess."

–

Masumi Kuwata?

Nice guy, kewl delivery, wonderful org PR.. no stuff.

–

Poor Cardinals fans. Last year it was Kip Wells, this year it’s Caesar Izturis. We know how you feel, believe me.

I haven’t praised this new front office team much since they took over but today I’m going to.

Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly deserve a lot of credit for something that’s been going on behind the scenes the last couple of weeks most fans would have never heard about, but I think it’s an important story to tell for a couple of reasons.

One, the person involved needs to know, not only do clubs want him, but the fans do too. And two, the extreme measures the Pirates took attempting to hire one of the best in the game.

Let me explain.

After Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly decided to part ways with Jim Tracy and his staff, Huntington put together his short-list of replacements and presented it to Coonelly. One of the men on that list was a man by the name of Perry Hill.

There are few coaches and managers in the game who are known in the industry as "difference makers" – guys who can single-handedly turn around one aspect of a club through their work. Hill is such a man working with infielders.

Hill had retired with the Marlins in March 2007 because he needed to be with his wife and family. At that point he was in the second year of a four-year contract that extended through 2009.

Since he had retired under contract, the Pirates had to negotiate with the Marlins not only to be able to interview him, but if Hill accepted the position, the Pirates would have had to compensate the Marlins for Hill’s loss.

That’s where this story begins.

Huntington and Coonelly reached an agreement with the Marlins to be able to interview Hill and Hill had tentatively accepted the Pirates offer last week. After Hill agreed, the Pirates then worked out a compensation package to the Marlins thought to be one player.. the name is unknown at this time.

At this point Coonelly and Huntington were jumping up and down in the offices at PNC thinking they had secured one of the best instructors in the game. However, as the week went by, and before signing a contract, Hill called back and told the Pirates he had changed his mind – he still needed to be with his family and he had to put them first in his life.

But Huntington and Coonelly didn’t give up. They methodically worked with Hill to see if there wasn’t some way possible to satisfy his family’s needs so he could return to the game and Hill and his family thought about it. After the Thanksgiving weekend, Hill had made his final decision.. he wouldn’t return in 2008, but 2009 might be an option.

Now folks, clubs don’t go to this extent when they target a hire – they typically make an offer and then receive an answer and that’s it. But Huntington and Coonelly went overboard to try and assist Hill’s family to make them comfortable. They deserve a pat on the back for their work.

As for Hill, I think his family needs to know that "Bone" (Hill’s nickname) is not just a club desired commodity, not just a player desired commodity, but a hot commodity with the fans too. He’s as much a part of the game of baseball as Babe Ruth is, although in a different way. We miss him too and we hope he and his family can come together and find a way for him to come back to the game, and with the Pirates when he does.

That being said, word on the street is the Pirates have settled on Red Sox minor league outfield and baserunning rover Lou Frazier as their first base coach.

Frazier played pro ball for 12 years and has coached since starting with the Indians in 2000 until joining the Red Sox as a rover in 2004. John Russell and Frazier coached the Phoenix AFL team in 2002 together.

Frazier might best be remembered by Pirates fans as the Expos player who said "Pedro doesn’t throw at batters" after Jimmy Leyland’s 1994 team, which included Gary Varsho, brawled with the Expos in Montreal on June 14th and six players were ejected. Many years later, of course, Pedro knocked Don Zimmer to the ground.

That June 14th was one day after the Pirates were no-hit for 8.2 innings by the Expos until Carlos Garcia singled and Jay Bell homered. BTW, June 14th was historical in another way.. the player’s union rejected a salary cap proposal which would have allowed the players to split revenues with the clubs 50/50. Ouch.

Anyway, look for Frazier to work with the outfielders and coach, and look for Tony Beasley work with the infielders and coach third.

Since I built Perry Hill up so much I don’t want to take away anything from Frazier – he’s a quality instructor who will immediately have an effect on Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth, Andrew McCutchen some in the spring, Steve Pearce, Xavier Nady and even Jason Bay.

And no disrespect to Frazier, but this fan hopes Frazier is hired with the understanding that if Hill is obtained for 2009, he moves to another role with the organization and Hill is told Frazier knows that. But I’d bet even Frazier would be tickled to do that.

Again, kudos to Coonelly and Huntington for a job well done.

–

How about Jack Bowen being demoted from special assistant to national crosschecker? Word on the street is that Huntington has been discussing this with Bowen for some time and, while it’s a demotion on paper, Bowen is very happy about the move to get back in the field looking at young talent which he is very good at.

I suppose the better question might be, was Bowen even considered to be the Pirates scouting director? Hmm..

–

Everyone heads to Nashville Sunday for the start of the winter meetings Monday. About the only player I expect to see Huntington step up and deal is Jason Bay, although I’m sure he’ll listen to anything.

Bucco Blog will have a few ears tuned in at the hotel too so keep the dial here.

–

–

What an outstanding trade the Rays and Twins put together – Garza for Young. I mentioned here that the Twins and Bucs had talked some (turned out it was a three-team deal) but evidently that was axed somewhere along the line and the Twins moved in another direction.

The Twins are dealing two good arms in order to improve their offense and it’s the type of dealing the Pirates need to consider with Gorzelanny and Snell.

Fabulous stuff.. what success cycles are all about. Oh, and new ballparks for their respective communities too. hehe

–

After giving kudos to Huntington, I read this tidbit in an article at Pirateball.com:

"As a result, rather than find a temporary veteran fix for 2008, Huntington is more interested in evaluating the players who are already in the system and seeing how they may fit into the equation for next season and beyond.

"For example, we want to know if Jose Bautista is just starting to get going and can establish himself at third," Huntington said, explaining this mentality. "We want to see if Ronny Paulino can become the hitter that he was in 2006. We have some exciting guys in [Nyjer] Morgan and [Steve] Pearce that we want to get playing time. We have players that we want to see."

Forgive me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the Pirates hire a president September 13th who represented Major League Baseball in evaluating player values? Didn’t Bautista play the last six games at home at third? And, didn’t we just hire a GM said to be an outstanding evaluator of talent? And didn’t that same GM just keep on all of Dave Littlefield’s special assistants?

Perhaps they don’t mean the Jose Bautista who can’t even reach a batting average of .300 on balls he puts in play, or was -16 runs FRAA last year (fielding runs above average for the position), or had a .270 EqA? Geezz.. Bautista needs more playing time at third about as much as he needs more innings in center.

But more worrisome about the article’s tone was that it suggests the Pirates want to evaluate talent again in 2008.

That’s sad, if true. Really sad.

Years ago, Branch Rickey devised a formula he used in his attempt to put the Pirates back on the map. Unfortunately for Rickey, the Pirates lost 100 or more games the last three years he was with the club but his work was forever entrenched. Just three years after leaving, the team went past the .500 mark and two years later, won the 1960 World Series.

Rickey’s formula essentially showed him that the Pirates were putting men on base at a better than league average rate but they were being stranded well below league average rate. In other words, his team lacked clutch hitting.

One interesting part to Rickey’s thoughts to me for that time period was that he admitted the game had changed so much and that he had failed to recognize it over the years. Offense, he said, had become king of the game.. not pitching and defense.

Rickey’s type of revelation led to events over the years like analysis of the Moneyball Effect, to teams hiring sabermetric notables (Red Sox, Bill James; A’s, Gary Huckabay; Indians, Keith Woolner) or even a NASA biomathematician/scientist (Cards, Sig Mejdal). Lately, the new craze is younger GM’s.

Everybody wants an edge.

But no matter how many different twists have been put into the pot over the years, Rickey’s simple thoughts remain today.. offense minus defense = net placement. Simple yet logical, huh?

Let’s see how the NL did last using Rickey’s basic formula including the weighting of 54% offense and 46% pitching without plugging in defense. Instead, I’ll add Mitchel Lichtman’s (better known as MGL) UZR total runs as of July 2007 which is far from perfect but will give you an idea how the team’s defense was doing. Remember the formula now, offense – defense = net placement:

(reference note: XB power is extra base power; off (offense) *1.08 and P (pitching) *.92 adjusts for Rickey’s 54%/46% values; the higher the offensive and UZR numbers, the better; the lower the pitching numbers, the better. For those curious, the correlation between Rickey’s total and win % is .813.)

It’s pretty easy to see why the Rockies ended up in the World Series this way – OBP and defense carried them. It’s also easy to see why the Brewers are such an increasing threat in the division with their league leading clutch hitting and overall offense.

Now look at the Pirates.. the combined offensive and pitching production was more than 25% off the NL median, no thanks to the worst pitching in the league. That ‘ain’t gonna work, Rickey might suggest. Notice too they had near league average defense which obviously didn’t mean much, just as Rickey suggested.

True, the Pirates have some decent core pitching. True, they are a young group who we expect to see get better. But with only two quality pieces in Snell and Gorzelanny, it’s improbable the Pirates will ever gain any significant ground in the league waiting around for betterment. And toss all the OBP you want into the lineup, with the staff the Pirates have they will never outscore their opponents unless we spend $100M a few years in a row.

Let’s get serious.

It’s time to trade young arms for young bats. Keep Gorzelanny and build around him with the expectation of signing him to a long-term deal in a year or two, and deal the rest.

As for holding onto Bay, Nady, LaRoche, Wilson, Sanchez, et al? Why hold them? Deal them for the best prospect packages we can get to build around toolsy McCutchen for 2010 and on.

In other words, we have one impact starter and one toolsy center fielder.. now Huntington, deal our system/roster to fill in the pieces of the puzzle.

What are we waiting for? What can there possibly be to think about?

Gut it.

–

For those asking, my opinion is..

no.. Bay won’t get us Lincecum. The Giants would be nuts to take on two years of Bay for him.

no.. we have zero interest in Clement.

no.. Duffy won’t be starting in Indy. Why in the world would Huntington punish Duffy, who happens to be the 8th best CF defender in the game right now, for health problems? Unless, of course, he needs rehab. Nobody ever said if he had a torn rotator cuff or just some clean up.

I don’t know what is sorrier.. waiting for news about the Pirates, getting it, then realizing it’s either org PR or just way out in left field, or not having any news at all.

"Watch Morgan run! Watch Morgan slide! Oh.. ughhh.. he over ran the bag again.."

"Watch Morgan run! Watch Morgan dive! Oh.. ughhh.. he landed 10 feet short from the ball and Dunn is going for an inside the park home run!"

"I live for this?"

Arrrggg!

"Pittsburgh’s Ian Snell. Teams that have talked to the Pirates say they’re in the midst of a monstrous internal debate about whether they’d be willing to at least dangle Snell, a major 26-year-old talent who had more quality starts this year (22) than Santana or Roy Oswalt and a better strikeout rate (7.66 per 9 innings) than Carlos Zambrano or Ben Sheets." — Jason Stark, ESPN, Nov 21

When I first read Stark’s comment earlier this week I wasn’t surprised to see the Pirates front office was without a cohesive rebuilding plan or, if they did have one and dealing Snell wasn’t a part of the rebuilding process, then they were obviously lacking leadership.

Over the last six days I’ve received a few anonymous emails on Snell and one of them was stuffed with pitch and statistical data that would blow the average fan out of the water. For instance..

Between 2005 and 2007, there were 170 MLB pitching performances where at least 15 starts were made in one year and the pitcher was between the ages of 23-27. Snell had two of those performances.. one in 2006 and one in 2007.

The median xERA (expected ERA – a forward looking stat – based Dwight Gill’s version he used with the Indians) of all 170 performances was 4.23 over 28,731 innings. Snell averaged 4.43, or was 5% below average. However in 2007, Snell’s 3.93 xERA was 7% better than the median and 21% better than his 4.97 xERA in 2006.

Now, because the starting pitching free agent market is so thin this year there is quite a seller’s market for quality pitchers. To give you an idea of what I mean, nearly 25% of the best 34 performances (top 20% of the 170 overall) were performed by five names you’ve heard as being potentially available in the media: Scott Kazmir, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Erik Bedard, and Dontrelle Willis. That’s amazing considering there were only 25 unique names in those top 34.

But what’s more interesting is that every one of those teams offering up the young talent are young rebuilding clubs, wanting to get younger, or wanting to get better – the Rays, Orioles, Giants, Twins, and Marlins.

That brings us back to Ian Snell. I mentioned above he had a 21% xERA improvement from 2006 to 2007. Only six pitchers in the 170 performance group had improvements higher than Snell in the period:

Is Snell really a Francis or Perez?

That brings us to the Pirates and Stark’s column. If the Pirates offer up Snell, what could they realistically expect to get back for him if his two-year performance median is a tick below the MLB young gun average, but his improvement rate suggests a breakout season in 2007?

Perhaps two or three 0-3 year players that could start everyday right now? Would that be enough considering Snell is going to provide the Pirates five more years of service at below market cost? Remember now, the Pirates don’t have a replacement anywhere in the system for Snell, and they are not likely to get back another young power arm unless that pitcher is a lower level prospect.

At the same point, the Pirates are headed down the road to lose another 90 in 2008 with or without Snell, so gutting the team certainly makes some sense. The old saying is, you have to build a success cycle to consistently win and even if Bay, Nady, LaRoche, and Sanchez were all dealt and prospects obtained over the winter, the team is still going nowhere with Snell on the mound.

My thought has always been Snell is an 80-pitch, two-pitch pitcher and he’s been very, very lucky. I would take the position he’s at his high value point right now and deal him expecting a package of two to three solid young core players, at least one being a lower level young gun power arm.

The Pirates? They will probably hold on to Snell knowing Robert Nutting’s penchant of avoiding controversy with the fans ultimately hoping he sells more tickets in 2008 and giving a dam about the future of this club.

No-brainer.. deal Snell. Not for a king’s ransom, but a reasonable ransom, if it can be had.